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HBM Supply Chain: Reading Samsung and SK hynix Data

← Blog · · 2026-09-16 16:38 · 0
HBM Supply Chain: Reading Samsung and SK hynix Data

HBM headlines move fast. Disclosed numbers move slowly. That gap is where most global investors get the Korean memory story wrong.

Samsung Electronics and SK hynix both publish audited filings in Korea. Those filings are dull. They are also the only place where capacity claims become checkable.

Where Korean memory numbers actually come from

Korea's disclosure portal is DART (Data Analysis, Retrieval and Transfer System). Every listed company files there. Quarterly reports, annual reports, major contracts, capex plans.

English-language coverage of HBM leans on analyst channel checks. DART cites the company itself. Start with the company. Our DART filings guide walks through the document structure.

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Capex shows up in two places

Look at the cash flow statement first. Capital expenditure sits inside investing activities. Then read the notes, where Korean firms break out semiconductor spending by segment.

Samsung announced a 30 trillion won cash dividend plan alongside record results. Dividends and capex compete for the same cash. Watch both lines together.

Rising capex with a flat dividend tells a different story than a rising dividend with flat capex. One is a bet on demand. The other is a return of capital.

DRAM mix is the quieter signal

SK hynix has been reported to plan a near doubling of DRAM capacity by the second half of 2026, targeting roughly 600,000 wafers per month to match Samsung.

That is wafer capacity, not HBM output. HBM dies are larger and yields are lower. A wafer of HBM yields far fewer sellable bits than a wafer of standard DDR5.

Read product mix, not just capacity. Filings disclose DRAM revenue split by product where the number is material.

Inventory measured in days

SK hynix memory inventory has been reported below 10 days. Days of inventory is a tighter measure than dollar value. It normalizes for price swings.

Falling days with rising revenue means sell-through. Falling days with falling revenue means production cuts. Same number, opposite meaning.

Qualification is the signal that pays

Qualification gates everything. A chip that passes customer testing becomes revenue. A chip that fails becomes inventory.

SK hynix has been reported supplying HBM4 to NVIDIA during final testing. Samsung has flagged HBM4 supply expansion.

Watch the stack transition too. Samsung was expected to begin full-scale mass-production shipments first, with SK hynix following about a quarter later.

Qualification news rarely appears as a filing headline. It shows up as a revenue inflection one or two quarters later.

Share and the supply-demand gap

SK hynix holds roughly 50% of the HBM market. That is the headline number.

TrendForce projects global HBM consumption rising from 6,469 million Gb in 2024 to 133,953 million Gb by 2030. The same forecast puts the supply-demand ratio at 16.5% in 2026 — a tight market. Market size is projected near $60 billion in 2026 and near $597.8 billion by 2030.

Treat those as one house's model. The disclosed data is the check on it.

What the tape said this week

On September 16, 2026, KOSPI fell 3.26%, a fourth straight decline. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 5.9%.

Samsung's most recent quarter showed revenue of 171.5 trillion won and operating profit of 89.5 trillion won. Those are record figures.

Price and disclosure disagreed. That happens. Filings are the slower, harder evidence.

A short reading routine

Step What to pull What to compare
1 Latest quarterly report on DART Capex vs. same quarter last year
2 Notes on segment spending Semiconductor share of total capex
3 Inventory disclosure Days of inventory across four quarters
4 Product mix language Any change in DRAM or HBM wording
5 Customer qualification mentions Timing versus the sell-side model you read

Live price and score pages for both names sit at Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. Keeping filings and price on one screen is the whole trick — the Daepak dashboard is built for that side-by-side view.

The habit matters more than the tool. Read the filing before the headline.

This is educational material, not a recommendation to trade any security.

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